← DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Wind Wakeup ComboTier 1
at DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
2
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
8-2-3
overall winrate
73.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.6%
avg ELO +4.0 per match
expected value
56.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1443
· median 1443
· range 1423–1463
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
921
Q1 1147
Q3 1347
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -3.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.0% | -5.8 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.1% | +10.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -7.6 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
